The World Bank Economic Review Advance Access published online on August 23, 2006
The World Bank Economic Review, doi:10.1093/wber/lhl004
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1 Ph.D. student in environmental economics at Yale University
* To whom correspondence should be addressed. Measurement of the likely magnitude of the economic impact of climate change on African agriculture has been a challenge. Using data from a survey of more than 9,000 farmers across 11 African countries, a cross-sectional approach estimates how farm net revenues are affected by climate change compared with current mean temperature. Revenues fall with warming for dryland crops (temperature elasticity of -1.9) and livestock (-5.4), whereas revenues rise for irrigated crops (elasticity of 0.5), which are located in relatively cool parts of Africa and are buffered by irrigation from the effects of warming. At first, warming has little net aggregate effect as the gains for irrigated crops offset the losses for dryland crops and livestock. Warming, however, will likely reduce dryland farm income immediately. The final effects will also depend on changes in precipitation, because revenues from all farm types increase with precipitation. Because irrigated farms are less sensitive to climate, where water is available, irrigation is a practical adaptation to climate change in Africa.
Article
Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?
Pradeep Kurukulasuriya 1 *, Robert Mendelsohn 2, Rashid Hassan 3, James Benhin 4, Temesgen Deressa 5, Mbaye Diop 6, Helmy Mohamed Eid 7, K. Yerfi Fosu 8, Glwadys Gbetibouo 9, Suman Jain 10, Ali Mahamadou 11, Renneth Mano 12, Jane Kabubo-Mariara 13, Samia El-Marsafawy 14, Ernest Molua 15, Samiha Ouda 14, Mathieu Ouedraogo 16, Isidor Séne 17, David Maddison 18, S. Niggol Seo 1, and Ariel Dinar 19
2 Professor in environmental economics at Yale University
3 Director and professor at the Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa (CEEPA), at the University of Pretoria
4 Research fellow at CEEPA
5 Ph.D. student at CEEPA and a researcher at the Ethiopia Development Research Institute and the Environmental Economics Policy Forum for Ethiopia, Addis Ababa
6 Lecturer at the Institut Senegalais de Recherches Agricoles, Campus universitaire de l’ESP, Dakar
7 Professor at the Soil, Water, and Environment Research Institute in Cairo
8 Senior lecturer at the University of Ghana, Legon
9 Ph.D. student in environmental economics at CEEPA, University of Pretoria
10 Senior lecturer in Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Zambia, Lusaka
11 Lecturer in Agricultural Economics at the University of Abdou Moumouni, Niamey, Niger
12 Senior lecturer in Economics at the University of Zimbabwe, Harare
13 Senior lecturer in Economics at the University of Nairobi, Kenya
14 Researcher at the Soil, Water, and Environment Research Institute, Cairo
15 Lecturer in Economics at the University of Buea, Cameroon
16 Researcher in agricultural economics at the Institut de l’Environnement et de Recherches Agricoles, Burkina Faso
17 Ph.D. student in agricultural economics at the Institut Senegalais de Recherches Agricoles, Campus universitaire de l’ESP, Senegal
18 Senior lecturer in Environmental Economics in the Department of Economics at University College London
19 Lead economist in the Agriculture and Rural Development Department at the World Bank and the task team leader of the project leading to this article
Pradeep Kurukulasuriya, E-mail: pradeep.kurukulasuriya{at}yale.edu
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