The World Bank Economic Review Advance Access originally published online on August 23, 2006
The World Bank Economic Review 2006 20(3):367-388; doi:10.1093/wber/lhl004
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Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?
Pradeep Kurukulasuriya is a Ph.D. student in environmental economics at Yale University; his email address is pradeep.kurukulasuriya{at}yale.edu.
Robert Mendelsohn is a professor in environmental economics at Yale University; his email address is robert.mendelsohn{at}yale.edu.
Rashid Hassan is director and professor at the Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa (CEEPA), at the University of Pretoria; his email address is rashid.hassan{at}up.ac.za.
James Benhin is a research fellow at CEEPA; his email address is james.benhin{at}up.ac.za.
Temesgen Deressa is a Ph.D. student at CEEPA and a researcher at the Ethiopia Development Research Institute and the Environmental Economics Policy Forum for Ethiopia, Addis Ababa; his email address is ttderessa{at}yahoo.com.
Mbaye Diop is a lecturer at the Institut Senegalais de Recherches Agricoles, Campus universitaire de l’ESP, Dakar; his email address is mbaye.diop{at}isra.sn.
The late Helmy Mohammed Eid was a professor at the Soil, Water, and Environment Research Institute in Cairo.
K. Yerfi Fosu is a senior lecturer at the University of Ghana, Legon; his email address is yfosu{at}ug.edu.gh.
Glwadys Gebtibouo is a Ph.D. student in environmental economics at CEEPA; University of Pretoria; her email address is ggbetibouo{at}postino.up.ac.za.
Suman Jain is a senior lecturer in Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Zambia, Lusaka; her email address is sjain{at}natsci.unza.zm.
Ali Mahamadou is a lecturer in Agricultural Economics at the University of Abdou Moumouni, Niamey, Niger; his email address is cresa{at}intnet.ne.
Reneth Mano is a senior lecturer in Economics at the University of Zimbabwe, Harare; his email address is rtmano{at}mweb.co.zw.
Jane Kabubo-Mariara is a senior lecturer in Economics at the University of Nairobi, Kenya; her email address is jmariara{at}uonbi.ac.ke.
Samia El-Marsafawy is a researcher at the Soil, Water, and Environment Research Institute, Cairo; her email address is samiaelmarsafawy797{at}hotmail.com.
Ernest Molua is a lecturer in Economics at the University of Buea, Cameroon; his email address is emolua{at}gmx.net.
Samiha Ouda is a researcher at the Soil, Water, and Environment Research Institute, Cairo; her email address is samihaouda{at}yahoo.com.
Mathieu Ouedraogo is a researcher in agricultural economics at the Institut de l’Environnement et de Recherches Agricoles, Burkina Faso; his email address is oued_mathieu{at}yahoo.fr.
Isidor Séne is a Ph.D. student in agricultural economics at the Institut Senegalais de Recherches Agricoles, Campus universitaire de l’ESP, Senegal; his email address is isisene{at}ucad.sn.
David Maddison is a senior lecturer in Environmental Economics in the Department of Economics at University College London; his email address is d.maddison{at}ucl.ac.uk.
S. Niggol Seo is a Ph.D. student in environmental economics at Yale University; his email address is niggol.seo{at}yale.edu.
Ariel Dinar is lead economist in the Agriculture and Rural Development Department at the World Bank and the task team leader of the project leading to this article; his email address is adinar{at}worldbank.org.
Measurement of the likely magnitude of the economic impact of climate change on African agriculture has been a challenge. Using data from a survey of more than 9,000 farmers across 11 African countries, a cross-sectional approach estimates how farm net revenues are affected by climate change compared with current mean temperature. Revenues fall with warming for dryland crops (temperature elasticity of –1.9) and livestock (–5.4), whereas revenues rise for irrigated crops (elasticity of 0.5), which are located in relatively cool parts of Africa and are buffered by irrigation from the effects of warming. At first, warming has little net aggregate effect as the gains for irrigated crops offset the losses for dryland crops and livestock. Warming, however, will likely reduce dryland farm income immedia-tely. The final effects will also depend on changes in precipitation, because revenues from all farm types increase with precipitation. Because irrigated farms are less sensitive to climate, where water is available, irrigation is a practical adaptation to climate change in Africa.
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