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THE WORLD BANK ECONOMIC REVIEW, VOL. 17, NO. 2, 229-254
© 2003 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK

Conditional Cash Transfers, Schooling, and Child Labor: Micro-Simulating Brazil's Bolsa Escola Program

François Bourguignon, Francisco H. G. Ferreira, and Phillippe G. Leite

François Bourguignon is Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of the World Bank. His e-mail address is fbourguignon{at}worldbank.org. Francisco H. G. Ferreira is with the Development Research Group, the World Bank, and PUC-Rio. His e-mail address is fferreira{at}worldbank.org. Philippe G. Leite is with DELTA and the World Bank. His e-mail address is pleite{at}worldbank.org.

Abstract

A growing number of developing economies are providing cash transfers to poor people that require certain behaviors on their part, such as attending school or regularly visiting health care facilities. A simple ex ante methodology is proposed for evaluating such programs and used to assess the Bolsa Escola program in Brazil. The results suggest that about 60 percent of poor 10- to 15-year-olds not in school enroll in response to the program. The program reduces the incidence of poverty by only a little more than one percentage point, however, and the Gini coefficient falls just half a point. Results are better for measures more sensitive to the bottom of the distribution, but the effect is never large.


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